Will electric vehicles doom your neighborhood auto mechanic?

How about “hot wire”?

Hmmmm....that has unfortunate connotions I guess.

As for the timeframe of EV adoption, yeah, it will happen, but it’ll take much longer than many pseudo-engineers and media people are saying. EV sale are still lagging predictions quite markedly and IC engines are getting better each year.

Pete
You're right about IC engines getting better in recent years - the question is how much longer can automakers, even the majors, continue to invest the capital it takes? Regulatory pressures to produce EV's / prohibit new IC-propelled vehicles grow steadily, regardless of customer demand; more and more capital must be devoted to developing products that will be legal to sell/lease in the future. Based on 44 years experience in the auto industry, I would bet my next pension check that discussions about how to minimize investment in new IC powerplants are well advanced already in many if not most auto companies.
 
Like 2 many sez we are in a paradigm shift, the one owner, driver per vehicle era is coming to an end. Especially in urban areas. A drivers license is no longer the rite of passage it represented when we were crazy kids. In 20 years time one will be considered quaint in the cities. How many of us know how to harness a horse to a wagon and drive it somewhere? We are only a few generations removed from that "essential" skill. Any house wife could do it at need...
Building on what 4g said, a time may come in highly populated areas when no human being will be allowed to operate a motor vehicle in networks dominated by autonomous ones - humans just cause too many accidents! The bright side of that picture, of course, is that you can text all you want while traveling.
 
Eeeeyyyeahhhh....watch the product mix carefully and note that a hybrid has an IC engine.
 
By 2020 us baby boomers are on the way out, and with that we take our unique consumerism and values.

We grew up on TV programs of the '50s-'70s. Westerns, heroes, science fiction, The Flintstones, Jetsons. Gadgets of the period, Tinker-Toy, Erector sets, plastic models, Heathkits, imported motorcycles, things that you made or worked on. Station wagons, exploring the USA, now doing that in RVs. Schools taught us the things we needed to be productive participants.

I don't have a clear picture of the emerging 20-somethings, but what I've seen involves Pokemon, Yu-Gi-O, Dragonball, video games, smartphones, live at home with the parents, job opportunities at fast-food joints, an explosion in modern drugs. A different educational philosophy concerning social and environmental issues, effort based grading.

Our parents, the greatest generation, fought to eradicate dictational governments, spoiled us as kids, created an environment of booming opportunities, broke barriers in science and engineering.

We picked up the ball and advanced electronics and technology. Mostly to pursue our curiosities, ambitions, dreams, consumerism. And kinda dropping the ball on creating an opportunistic future for the kids.

Sounds pretty bad, but it isn't. Some really sharp cookies in the new generations. They'll get it figured out...
 
Sounds pretty bad, but it isn't. Some really sharp cookies in the new generations. They'll get it figured out...
I've spent the last 15yrs. teaching "millennials." Taken as a whole (and being as kind as I can be), they ain't to impressive.
Having said that.... there's enough there that fit right in with our generation 2M, that I think we'll be OK too. Innovators... free thinkers... I agree, they'll get it figured out.
 
By 2020 us baby boomers are on the way out, and with that we take our unique consumerism and values.

We grew up on TV programs of the '50s-'70s. Westerns, heroes, science fiction, The Flintstones, Jetsons. Gadgets of the period, Tinker-Toy, Erector sets, plastic models, Heathkits, imported motorcycles, things that you made or worked on. Station wagons, exploring the USA, now doing that in RVs. Schools taught us the things we needed to be productive participants.

I don't have a clear picture of the emerging 20-somethings, but what I've seen involves Pokemon, Yu-Gi-O, Dragonball, video games, smartphones, live at home with the parents, job opportunities at fast-food joints, an explosion in modern drugs. A different educational philosophy concerning social and environmental issues, effort based grading.

Our parents, the greatest generation, fought to eradicate dictational governments, spoiled us as kids, created an environment of booming opportunities, broke barriers in science and engineering.

We picked up the ball and advanced electronics and technology. Mostly to pursue our curiosities, ambitions, dreams, consumerism. And kinda dropping the ball on creating an opportunistic future for the kids.

Sounds pretty bad, but it isn't. Some really sharp cookies in the new generations. They'll get it figured out...
Very well spoken!
 
Even electric cars will need mechanics. Wheels need bearings and bearings need to be serviced. Brakes need servicing. True, some new methods will be learned and needed and the mechanic will need to be educated to these new technologies. This will trickle down to the layman. It always has in the past and will in the future. It has with the first IC engine, motorcycles, computers etc.
 
There will always be a place for the local bloke but I suspect they will be limited to service and routine maintenance type of repairs
The days of being able to tackle all repairs that were brought to them began to decline once as electronic controls started to be introduced into vehicles.
Now days you need a specialist machine to diagnose so many of the faults that occur. To set yourself up as a 'fix all makes' repairer is prohibitive as not only would you need to invest in each manufacturers software and perhaps diagnostic gear but also bear the cost of ongoing training as new systems are introduced. As modern electronic systems tend to be reliable there probably isn't sufficient repairs out there to give a reasonable return on investment.
Rather than the general repairer there does seem to be more marque specialists.

Whilst there will always be a need for someone to undertake purely mechanical repairs I would advise anyone who is thinking becoming a vehicle technician to specialise in electronics diagnosis. Good electronics diagnosticians are hard to find....that is until AI takes their jobs!
 
God bless millenials! We need them! Really.....who else would make our coffee?
image.jpeg
 
Volvo has announced that starting in 2019 they will only build electric or hybrid vehicles. And so it begins.....
I love Volvo, had 3 of them (mainly for comfort levels) but I was shocked when I visited my local dealer last week to find that the new 2017 XC60 hybrid model is £20,000 more expensive than the exact same Diesel model...£20,000!!!!! I think pretty much all the manufacturers are milking the hybrid/electric market.
 
Just read that an electric bike will race at the Cemetery circuit tomorrow. I think this is a first. The organisers have put it in F3.
 
The technology is all but there already to completely eliminate service techs. Most new equipment has self diagnostic capabilities and with a standardized parts inventory, any robot can plug in a new module. Be as easy as upgrades on the computer. Down time between 3 and 4 am. self driving unit heads to nearest authorize service area and has the Q-37 space modulator replaced. Back in service by 8 for your ride to starbucks. I wonder how the auto insurance companies are going to deal with the change? Responsibility now is with the manufacturer and the driver is held harmless. With the promise of fewer accidents and almost no claims, where is the profit for them?
 
I think pretty much all the manufacturers are milking the hybrid/electric market.

Well, sort of, but not exactly. I’m told by battery experts that the real problems are the materials and the manufacturing methods needed to make these modern batteries perform. The materials (MUCH more than just lithium - which is expensive enough) include some trace amounts of several very rare substances that are referred to as “pixie dust” in the industry. The required material purity can only be achieved by doing the manufacturing in a clean room environment that simply doesn’t lend itself to really large scale production.

If they don’t do the manufacturing properly, the battery’s energy storage capacity and more importantly, it’s thermal stability is poor. To find out what that entails - just type “lithium battery fires” into your search engine, grab a beer and enjoy!

Anyhow, the basic fact is that the battery in an EV costs about as much as the rest of the car - and that is why Volvo is charging 20,000 quid more for the HEV version and why Nissan charges nearly $40,000 for the Leaf EV.

If they didn’t, they’d loose their shirts.

It is also why no EV sells anywhere, in large volumes, unless the buyer is bribed with taxpayer money to make the purchase.
 
Fiat had an all electric car that they sold only in California to meet some federal mandate. I remember reading an interview with the CEO of Fiat Chrysler and him saying how much he hated that little car. They lost money on every one!

Also in the news recently was Tesla announcing their new all electric semi truck.
image.jpeg


They made a lot of bold claims about how superior this truck would be compared to a diesel powered one, there were some major trucking companies that have already ordered some, including trucking company J.B. Hunt and Pepsi Co.
However I was watching a YouTube video analysis of this truck and they said in order to achieve the kind of mileage and power that they are advertising , that the batteries would have to be huge and massively heavy, thus deducting from available payload. Tesla was also mum regarding truck weight and load capacity.
 
Tesla was also mum regarding truck weight and load capacity.

ZACKLEY!!!!

There is no free lunch. It’s all about the delicate balance among weight, cost and energy storage capacity - and you can have it:
  • Green;
  • Fast (or long range or big payload);
  • Cheap;
Pick any two.....
 
Bloomberg had a recent article that discussed the future of EV. They are expecting price parity in around 8 years, where gas & EV cars will be around the same price. That’s the tipping point.
 
Bloomberg had a recent article that discussed the future of EV. They are expecting price parity in around 8 years, where gas & EV cars will be around the same price. That’s the tipping point.

That's really what it's all about. There will always be early adopters that want to be on the forefront of new technology and have deep enough pockets to do it. But until Joe Blow can get one for the same cost as a Camry and be able to drive it to work and back with maybe a few errands thrown in they will never be a serious contender.
 
Either way, it looks like the company I work for are going to get me out of my year old BMW next year and put me into a hybrid...huge savings in fuel and tax for them and huge savings for me in company car tax as the CO2 emissions are so much lower. Only downside is the P11d value is much higher so that in turn bumps up the tax I pay.

Government = still win!
 
Back
Top