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- Thread starter gggGary
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I keep reading about all the wonderful battery advances but I still can't buy a car battery that will last more than three years...
How much does an electric car cost to operate? I suppose the answer might be relevant to a discussion of E-bikes. But it's bloody hard to get facts.
Had a chat a while back with brother-in-law on the subject. He used to work in the motor trade was talking about how how hard it is to reach any meaningful comparison of the running costs of battery, hybrid and petrol cars. For one thing, Government is keen to make us swap - when you renew the annual tax on your car, you are presented with the factoid that you can 'fill' an electric car for 60p. So why not make your next car an electric one?
But apparently, there is no way even using cheap, off-peak night time electricity you can get a full charge for as little as that. So the facts are already looking a bit stretched. And of course the cost goes up if you use peak-time electricity.
But he said the true cost is the battery. Quoted the Renault battery car. You buy it at a subsidised price, can't remember the numbers, say £20,000. The battery has a life of about three years. Conveniently, the car comes with a 3-year warranty. Renault replaces the battery. You can then sell the car, but unlikely to achieve half what you paid for it. Or keep it for another three years and replace the battery again. This time, you will have to pay for it. Something like £7,000. Ouch! Or sell it, but you won't get much more than scrappage as the car is now for practical purposes valueless.
He said the customer base is mostly people who buy new, replace with another new car after one or two years, don't mind the huge depreciation and think they are 'doing something really positive for the planet.'
But as I said, hard to get the facts. And this is a market area where parties on all sides are tying to manipulate our opinions according to agenda.
Had a chat a while back with brother-in-law on the subject. He used to work in the motor trade was talking about how how hard it is to reach any meaningful comparison of the running costs of battery, hybrid and petrol cars. For one thing, Government is keen to make us swap - when you renew the annual tax on your car, you are presented with the factoid that you can 'fill' an electric car for 60p. So why not make your next car an electric one?
But apparently, there is no way even using cheap, off-peak night time electricity you can get a full charge for as little as that. So the facts are already looking a bit stretched. And of course the cost goes up if you use peak-time electricity.
But he said the true cost is the battery. Quoted the Renault battery car. You buy it at a subsidised price, can't remember the numbers, say £20,000. The battery has a life of about three years. Conveniently, the car comes with a 3-year warranty. Renault replaces the battery. You can then sell the car, but unlikely to achieve half what you paid for it. Or keep it for another three years and replace the battery again. This time, you will have to pay for it. Something like £7,000. Ouch! Or sell it, but you won't get much more than scrappage as the car is now for practical purposes valueless.
He said the customer base is mostly people who buy new, replace with another new car after one or two years, don't mind the huge depreciation and think they are 'doing something really positive for the planet.'
But as I said, hard to get the facts. And this is a market area where parties on all sides are tying to manipulate our opinions according to agenda.
My friend got a free golf cart from our benevolent government because it was presumed he was taking a gas burner off the road and was showered with subsidies. He used it to take his kids to the neighborhood pool which was less than a 1/4 away. He still drove his Expedition back and forth to work. John Stossel did something similar.
Nissan Leafs were all the rage a few years back because you could lease them for two years and with the state subsidies and free charging stations at work they were zero cost. Meanwhile, the talking heads would tout how wonderful these cars must be because they were everywhere.
Morons.
Nissan Leafs were all the rage a few years back because you could lease them for two years and with the state subsidies and free charging stations at work they were zero cost. Meanwhile, the talking heads would tout how wonderful these cars must be because they were everywhere.
Morons.
The difficulty with "pure" EVs such as the Leaf and all of the Tesla models is indeed, the cost of the battery and its effect on the residual value of the car. As the car ages, the range and performance will deteriorate - eventually to the point where the car becomes pretty useless (just like a flashlight will grow dimmer over time). At that point, the car will likely be about 5-8 years old, or maybe 10 years say - but it will happen. NOTE: the average age of the vehicles on North American roads is between 10 and 11.3 years...so an 8-10 year old car is simply NOT that old, nor should it need to be considered economically worthless - particularly if you paid top-dollar for it in the first place.
OK - so you buy a Nissan Leaf for around $32-40K (depending on government subsidies - and note that that price is substantially more than a comparable ICE engine car like a Toyota Corolla, Ford Focus or Honda Civic). That is a pretty penny to pay for a car that is really a fairly small econobox - but you are a green enviro-warrior - so YAH BABY!!
Some years later, you have a Nissan Leaf that is say...9 years old and the battery will only run the car for say, 30 miles versus the original 100 mile range - and only in warm weather. In cold weather, you might be lucky to get half of that range according to tests done by Environment Canada and Transport Canada (i.e. federal gov't agencies). Cold weather really hurst battery performance AND you need to run defrosters, heaters, wipers and lights - because the weather is cold, dark, sloppy-wet and sh!tty. No matter what the salesmen say, EV range plummets in the winter - so handle it.
So, what the heck do you do? Here are the alternatives:
Check this video out - and feel sorry for the poor guy who was only trying to do the right thing....
A Prius or to a lesser extent, a Chevy Volt are entirely different kettles of fish because they are hybrids and will still move even if the battery is dead or nearly dead and un-rechargeable because of chemical breakdown in the cells. Also, the duty-cycle (the charge-discharge-recharge cycle) programmed into hybrids is much less severe than that required by "pure" EVs because the battery is only there to assist - it doesn't need to actually propel the car very far.
I am asked about EVs all the time and in my view, for most people, they are simply not viable products without government subsidies (which means that they are NOT FRICKIN' VIABLE) - and they won't be until battery costs drop - A LOT! Modern EVs (in contrast to the 2013 Leaf in the CBC video) are better, but they're not there yet and the problem is that as battery technologies evolve rapidly, what is a great battery today will be a dog soon - and nobody will stock it to support 2020 cars. In short, the battery and EV fields are moving too rapidly to make a used EV purchase a wise choice at the present time.
Just my $0.02 CDN (which is about $0.015 USD at the present rate of exchange).
Pete
OK - so you buy a Nissan Leaf for around $32-40K (depending on government subsidies - and note that that price is substantially more than a comparable ICE engine car like a Toyota Corolla, Ford Focus or Honda Civic). That is a pretty penny to pay for a car that is really a fairly small econobox - but you are a green enviro-warrior - so YAH BABY!!
Some years later, you have a Nissan Leaf that is say...9 years old and the battery will only run the car for say, 30 miles versus the original 100 mile range - and only in warm weather. In cold weather, you might be lucky to get half of that range according to tests done by Environment Canada and Transport Canada (i.e. federal gov't agencies). Cold weather really hurst battery performance AND you need to run defrosters, heaters, wipers and lights - because the weather is cold, dark, sloppy-wet and sh!tty. No matter what the salesmen say, EV range plummets in the winter - so handle it.
So, what the heck do you do? Here are the alternatives:
- spend $8-10K on a new OEM battery (assuming you can get one which is not at all certain - see the attached video clip). Now you have a car in which you have invested $8-10K but is worth only about $2-4K because, no matter how you tart it up, it is just a 9-year old econobox.....not economically attractive...or,
- do not replace the battery and see the car's performance and range continue to deteriorate (and that will likely happen increasingly rapidly) - until you have a car that truly is virtually worthless - because it is now not a 9-year old econobox, it has become a small, homely, immobile garden shed on four wheels.
Check this video out - and feel sorry for the poor guy who was only trying to do the right thing....
A Prius or to a lesser extent, a Chevy Volt are entirely different kettles of fish because they are hybrids and will still move even if the battery is dead or nearly dead and un-rechargeable because of chemical breakdown in the cells. Also, the duty-cycle (the charge-discharge-recharge cycle) programmed into hybrids is much less severe than that required by "pure" EVs because the battery is only there to assist - it doesn't need to actually propel the car very far.
I am asked about EVs all the time and in my view, for most people, they are simply not viable products without government subsidies (which means that they are NOT FRICKIN' VIABLE) - and they won't be until battery costs drop - A LOT! Modern EVs (in contrast to the 2013 Leaf in the CBC video) are better, but they're not there yet and the problem is that as battery technologies evolve rapidly, what is a great battery today will be a dog soon - and nobody will stock it to support 2020 cars. In short, the battery and EV fields are moving too rapidly to make a used EV purchase a wise choice at the present time.
Just my $0.02 CDN (which is about $0.015 USD at the present rate of exchange).
Pete
Well, driving an Expedition for just getting to and from work isn't really an intelligent thing to do IMHO. I guess most motorcyclists over a certain age are familiar with Kevin Cameron. Maybe the best moto-journalist there is, when it comes to explaining rather complex technical and scientific subjects in a way most can relate to. KC drives a small compact car, I believe a Honda. Because he realizes that is all you need to move 1 or 2 persons around. And he has nothing to prove, so does not feel he needs a huge, gas guzzling SUV or pickup truck.
It has nothing to do with need but I'll let my friend Jeff know Kevin Cameron does not approve of his choices.
Oh - don't get me wrong arcticXS - I don't believe that huge SUVs make any sense either. The things to keep in mind is each country has its own set of economic drivers and energy mix.
For example, Norway and many parts of Canada rely almost entirely on hydroelectric power generation and there is substantial excess capacity - so that "clean" power is what would be used to charge a future EV fleet. Other jurisdictions (such as France) rely on nuclear generating stations which are also GHG-free (but of course, have concerns about the disposal of waste from spent fuel). However, many places (and particularly in China and the US) rely on coal-fired generation and that means that everyone who charges an EV is burning coal to do it.
The other thing is that there is a big variation in the public policy regime around EVs and the country's ability to afford the subsidies. I was on a panel with the Norwegian Min. of Transport some years ago at a conference in Detroit (he was a man but I don't recall his name) and he leaned over to me and quietly said: "You have no idea how much we pay to buy the biggest EV market in the world."
This is NOT in any way a criticism, but the fact is that Norway is very fortunate to have a small population and massive oil revenues to be able to afford to subsidize low or zero VAT on e-vehicle purchases, provide free or low-cost e-vehicle charging, provide free parking and ferry boat fares etc. etc. etc. for EV users - at present. It is a socially conscious choice - and Norway can pay the cost of it - but not many other countries could do that.
I do also wonder how long that public support for EVs can be financed - or how long it makes sense to do it.
...an interesting dicussion....
@MaxPete you make good points
but I'll throw the old reprobates
in.
The aftermarket hates a vacuum and will manufacture retrofit batteries, a well known niche for Prius owners, leaving a tasty little chance to buy "zero present value" EV's and re-battery them, making economically viable transports.
Yes cold climate is an EV killer at present. Heated garage, parking a big help.
As for coal generation the US is further along than you'd think since in a fit of rationalit,y designed and sold carbon credits, allowing the power companies to make efficient choices RE life cycle of existing power generation. Regardless of your opinion of fracking, natural gas makes a big leap forward in CO2 and particulates per unit of power generated and helps speed a more net like, than hub and spoke power grid, perfect to encompass small scale power (solar, wind, geothermal) generation. Too bad the North American utilities have resisted CoGen, combined nat gas building heat and power generation technology. I think Japan and Australia have done well with that already?
but I'll throw the old reprobates
in.The aftermarket hates a vacuum and will manufacture retrofit batteries, a well known niche for Prius owners, leaving a tasty little chance to buy "zero present value" EV's and re-battery them, making economically viable transports.
Yes cold climate is an EV killer at present. Heated garage, parking a big help.
As for coal generation the US is further along than you'd think since in a fit of rationalit,y designed and sold carbon credits, allowing the power companies to make efficient choices RE life cycle of existing power generation. Regardless of your opinion of fracking, natural gas makes a big leap forward in CO2 and particulates per unit of power generated and helps speed a more net like, than hub and spoke power grid, perfect to encompass small scale power (solar, wind, geothermal) generation. Too bad the North American utilities have resisted CoGen, combined nat gas building heat and power generation technology. I think Japan and Australia have done well with that already?
RE Battery packs. Not sure if they all do like Tesla and build one large batt pack, but it seems to me breaking it up into 4-6 separate packs would help. Would prolly be more expensive on the front end, but would help down the road. Have the computer draw more from some packs so they wear out sooner than others. That way replacement would be broke into 4-6 smaller (more economical ) chunks. Would most likely make resale more attractive as well as long term ownership. Could prolly be designed so that, as batt tech moved, it could affordably be incorporated.... one pack at a time.
Modular.
Modular.
Gary & Jim:
Good points in your posts but....
- the aftermarket doesn't know what to make because every EV manufacturer has designed their own pack. Even if voltages were all common (and they are not at present) and internal connectors were all common (and they are not - at present), the shape of the modules is all over the place as dictated by the packaging requirements of each EV model.
- cost is the key driver in the auto sector and splitting the pack into several modules would cost more plus it would require extra battery management system functionality which....would cost more and likely reduce reliability plus increase weight and...well, you see the trend.
- Co-Gen is a good solution and using CNG is also a cleaner alternative - but again, as you say, to make the economics really work well requires fracking which is attractive in some respects but seems to come with some nasty geological side effects too.
My neighbor bought his son aa Honda hybrid for a song, because the battery pack was bad. Of the whole pack, only one cell was bad, causing the whole thing to fail. He replaced the bad cell (cost minimal, compared to the whole battery pack), and it's all been functioning perfectly ever since. Overall, his mileage is through the roof. For a kid starting out with a reliable car to get to work, and cheap to feed. It has done exceptionally well. Maybe fully electric cars (and motorcycles) will become "the thing" when they invent a "Mr. Fusion".... 
My neighbor bought his son aa Honda hybrid for a song, because the battery pack was bad. Of the whole pack, only one cell was bad, causing the whole thing to fail. He replaced the bad cell (cost minimal, compared to the whole battery pack), and it's all been functioning perfectly ever since. Overall, his mileage is through the roof. For a kid starting out with a reliable car to get to work, and cheap to feed. It has done exceptionally well. Maybe fully electric cars (and motorcycles) will become "the thing" when they invent a "Mr. Fusion"....
Yup - good thought Tebo.
The biggest difference between an EV like a Nissan Leaf or a Tesla and hybrid vehicle like a Toyota Prius or your friend's Honda Insight (aside from the presence of an IC engine in the hybrid) is the size of the battery pack - and the battery pack is the biggest single cost-driver in the building of an electric or a hybrid vehicle.
In fact, for a pure EV - when it is newly built - the battery pack actually is worth as much or more than the rest of the car combined. THAT is why EVs cost so danged much - because aside from the battery and the e-motor, the rest of the car is actually fairly comparable to a regular car.
The big money is in the battery pack and more to the point the materials that are in them AND the manufacturing of them - and that is precisely why there is so much R&D about batteries these days and why the design and chemistry of the packs is changing so rapidly.
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I drive a full size truck when I can't ride my bike. It's 14yrs old with 174k miles on it. It recently got its first set of new spark plugs at 160k. So far other than general maintenance it's needed nothing. Haven't even had to change a light bulb. But I regularly haul my dirtbike, or a trailer with quads, or help move big items, go to the dump etc. Going to a small SUV would mean using the trailer to move the dirtbike, or tool box etc. making it far less convenient. The wife drives a dinky little fiesta, and when we go out we take her car. She could probably do an EV since she rarely goes further than 10 miles, but it would have cost over double to get one. Some of the hybrids have really come down, but not enough to justify the cost difference. So will I eventually have an EV? Probably, but they just aren't competitive with a low cost econobox and none of the trucks are nearly capable enough. My basic 4.6l f150 averaged 16mpg from WA to OK cruising 80-85 a lot of the trip with a trailer. The drive took a little under 2 days, with say a model x they lose half their range towing, so having to charge every 200 miles would have been 10 stops atleast a few hours each. Compared to stop every 300 miles when I hit 1/4 tank for 20 minutes.
Now being realistic I could probably switch to an Ebike. I don't tend to do long trips. But if I can't bring myself to spend close to 20k on the new tiger 900 when I really like my tiger 800, then I'm not going to spend 20k to get an ebike with similar performance.
Now being realistic I could probably switch to an Ebike. I don't tend to do long trips. But if I can't bring myself to spend close to 20k on the new tiger 900 when I really like my tiger 800, then I'm not going to spend 20k to get an ebike with similar performance.
ZACKLEY - the present alternatives for most people - simply do not make economic sense and spending taxpayer money to bribe people to buy a product that they really don't like or want - is simply dumb IMO.
I drive a rusty 2012 Ford Escape in the winter (a bit thirsty but it runs perfectly and everything works - plus I own it) and when I need a car in the decent weather, I use my 14 year old Miata which gets nearly 40 MPG (Imperial) so riding the bike really doesn't save very much in fuel. I just like riding it - so I do.
Despite my job, I am not a car-proud person. To me a car is like the stapler in my office.
When I need it, I use it but I sure don't lie awake at night thinking about it.
Yeah. I buy what will do the job the best, for the best price. Wife's car brand new was $17k, with 25k miles on it now over 4 years it's maintenance has been cheap, a few oil changes, and it's probably used under $2k in gas. So say all in at this point of $20k. So take it out to 10yrs instead of 4 and it'll be under $26k total to buy and operate compared to close to $40k just to get an EV. Hybrids will close the gap faster being that when we looked a fusion hybrid was mid 20s, but it would have to get atleast double the fiestas 31mpg average to even out in a reasonable time frame.
Plus another factor in all this is the utility companies. A whole lot of them aren't set up to handle the draw of entire neighborhoods with only EVs. How long will it take them to upgrade the lines and substations to handle the draw? How much will those upgrades add to the cost of an average consumers power bill? How many years will it take? How long till solar and wind generate enough power to not need government subsidies to be viable? Take cali for example. During their wildfires lots of areas didn't have enough power and people were being told to not use AC or other high draw devices, which a car charger would count since on 110v a tesla averages 1mile of charge per hour. So now you can't even charge your car enough to get out of the area. Atleast with an ICE engine you can normally get enough fuel even with power shortages.
Plus another factor in all this is the utility companies. A whole lot of them aren't set up to handle the draw of entire neighborhoods with only EVs. How long will it take them to upgrade the lines and substations to handle the draw? How much will those upgrades add to the cost of an average consumers power bill? How many years will it take? How long till solar and wind generate enough power to not need government subsidies to be viable? Take cali for example. During their wildfires lots of areas didn't have enough power and people were being told to not use AC or other high draw devices, which a car charger would count since on 110v a tesla averages 1mile of charge per hour. So now you can't even charge your car enough to get out of the area. Atleast with an ICE engine you can normally get enough fuel even with power shortages.
Well, without goin' too far down a rabbit hole, we still subsidize the fossil fuel industry to the tune of billions annually, so....
What that bribing got us was innovation. Large companies weren't gonna spend the R&D money on something that was unsalable because of cost. The tax breaks at least partially offset that barrier and got us (helped) to where we are now. I'm not advocating for 'em now... but I see where they helped.
My sentiments, exactly. If a car doesn't have a clutch pedal, it's just transportation. I'll never buy a toy that doesn't have an old fashioned clutch. If a new Corvette was on the table, it isn't any longer.
I was thinking about coal and oil industries. I don't really know anything about corn.
