Real Estate Update

What's up with the Bolt

...to paraphrase a former US president: "Its the battery...." If it is about EVs, it is nearly ALWAYS going to be about the battery.

Moving a vehicle down the road, climbing a hill, towing a trailer...whatever, takes a lot of energy and, except for electric trains and trolley cars or San Francisco cable cars, that energy must be stored on the vehicle. Most vehicles store it in the form of chemical energy embodied in liquid or gaseous fuels like diesel, gasoline, NG, propane etc. Electric vehicles use electric potential energy embodied batteries made from chemicals that can store and deliver energy - hopefully at a controlled rate. No matter what form of energy storage mechanism is used, the energy is on-board the vehicle and if that energy gets out of control, you will have a nasty problem. Any thoughts that EVs are some sort of benign, enviro-friendly, green, harmless, happy-happy/joy-joy device is total bunk - like all vehicles, they store a sh!tload of energy and that energy is just busting to get out.

Basically, the only viable option for electric vehicle storage batteries at present is based on lithium chemistry with small amounts of several other extremely expensive materials (referred to as "pixie dust" in the industry) added to improve performance and thermal stability. There are several distinct problems with this type of chemistry and these issues can be broadly divided into:
  • cost: a typical EV battery costs more than the rest of the vehicle - literally more than 50% of the cost of the vehicle when new;
  • supply chain: lithium and another key ingredient - cobalt and others are, at present, only being mined in isolated and politically unstable countries such as Chile and the "Democratic Republic" of the Congo (note the use of quotes on "DR" - cause it ain't);
  • operating characteristic: of the batteries (see below);
Lithium is a metal but it happens to be highly flammable (see the attached video from the US NTSB) and the fires are extremely difficult to extinguish. As an inherent consequence of their chemistry, most batteries, but particularly, lithium-based batteries:
  • do not like being too cold;
  • do not like being too hot;
  • do not like being charged too fast;
  • do not like being charged too many times (i.e. they have a finite life - and beyond that, they die either slowly or very quickly - once again refer to the attached video);
  • do not like being stored either at too low a state of charge or at too high a state of charge;
  • do not like being discharged too fast;
  • do not like being discharged too far (run down to a state where they contain too little energy);
  • etc. etc. etc.
Basically, everything has to be juuuusssttt right for a lithium battery to be happy and healthy and even then, it WILL eventually die. (Not too cold and not too hot - but juuuuussttt right - sort of sounds like Little Red Riding Hood - doesn't it?) Anyhow, here is that festive movie from our good friends at the NTSB:

On the Bolt specifically, here is a good video from Transport Evolved...

There are lots of smart people working on these problems and they are making some progress, but the fundamental issues remain and until they are really nailed, EVs (IMO) will remain a challenging option for many consumers. For example, there are several very large exploration and mining projects in the US and Canada right now which are intended to provide a lower cost and more stable supply of the key battery materials. In addition, there is very active research underway to develop more stable battery chemistries and reduce the requirements for rare materials (the supplies of which are largely controlled by the Chinese - which should hardly give any of us any comfort).

In the meantime, large recalls (such as that for the Chevy Bolt and at least one other EV model) will continue to pop-up from time to time. Now, recalls are simply a fact of life in the auto industry, but these battery recalls are a bit different from most because they involve a component which is worth more than the rest of the car combined and that was not expected to ever need service at a retail dealership. I know, from personal experience, that changing an EV battery is a highly non-trivial task and few if any dealerships are equipped to do it.

The other thing is that as new batteries are developed, older EVs will become "orphans" which the newer batteries do not fit and thus, the older cars will become obsolete - basically, just small, pretty, four-wheel garden sheds.

To prove that point, here is a nice video from CBC News, featuring the attractive and articulate Heather Hiscox (sigh....), about a chap in British Columbia who has a 2013 Nissan Leaf which he likes very much. The problem is that the original Leaf battery has lost capacity (see the above list of operating characteristic issues) to the point where the car is not really very useful any longer. So - this guy wants to buy a new battery, and Nissan has quoted him about $15,000 for it, which he is willing to pay because the rest of the now 9-model year old car is still fine - but - Nissan cannot actually get a new battery for him because those 2013 model batteries are no longer made.

This situation is like the new car that you just bought can only use a special fuel that will only be made for a few years and after that - you're on your own baby!

One final point: ask yourself how much a small econbox car is worth when it is 9 years old....say, $2-4,000 - tops - depending on the specific model and its condition?

Now, consider that the average age of a car in North America is about 11+ years - and so the guy in BC has a relatively "young" car which is becoming virtually useless and thus has very little value, despite being totally undamaged and fully serviceable - except for one component which is unobtainable at any price - even one which is far more than the whole vehicle is worth.

I'm stickin' with my slightly rusty and ratty 2012 Ford Escape.....

Pete
 
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...to paraphrase a former US president: "Its the battery...." If it is about EVs, it is nearly ALWAYS going to be about the battery.

Moving a vehicle down the road, climbing a hill, towing a trailer...whatever, takes a lot of energy and, except for electric trains and trolley cars or San Francisco cable cars, that energy must be stored on the vehicle. Most vehicles store it in the form of chemical energy embodied in liquid or gaseous fuels like diesel, gasoline, NG, propane etc. Electric vehicles use electric potential energy embodied batteries made from chemicals that can store and deliver energy - hopefully at a controlled rate. No matter what form of energy storage mechanism is used, the energy is on-board the vehicle and if that energy gets out of control, you will have a nasty problem. Any thoughts that EVs are some sort of benign, enviro-friendly, green, harmless, happy-happy/joy-joy device is total bunk - like all vehicles, they store a sh!tload of energy and that energy is just busting to get out.

Basically, the only viable option for electric vehicle storage batteries at present is based on lithium chemistry with small amounts of several other extremely expensive materials (referred to as "pixie dust" in the industry) added to improve performance and thermal stability. There are several distinct problems with this type of chemistry and these issues can be broadly divided into:
  • cost: a typical EV battery costs more than the rest of the vehicle - literally more than 50% of the cost of the vehicle when new;
  • supply chain: lithium and another key ingredient - cobalt and others are, at present, only being mined in isolated and politically unstable countries such as Chile and the "Democratic Republic" of the Congo (note the use of quotes on "DR" - cause it ain't);
  • operating characteristic: of the batteries (see below);
Lithium is a metal but it happens to be highly flammable (see the attached video from the US NTSB) and the fires are extremely difficult to extinguish. As an inherent consequence of their chemistry, most batteries, but particularly, lithium-based batteries:
  • do not like being too cold;
  • do not like being too hot;
  • do not like being charged too fast;
  • do not like being charged to many times (i.e. they have a finite life - and beyond that, they die either slowly or very quickly - once again refer to the attached video);
  • do not like being stored either at too low a state of charge or at too high a state of charge;
  • do not like being discharged too fast;
  • do not like being discharged too far (run down to a state where they contain too little energy);
  • etc. etc. etc.
Basically, everything has to be juuuusssttt right for a lithium battery to be happy and healthy and even then, it WILL eventually die. (Not too cold and not too hot - but juuuuussttt right - sort of sounds like Little Red Riding Hood - doesn't it?) Anyhow, here is that festive movie from our good friends at the NTSB:

On the Bolt specifically, here is a good video from Transport Evolved...

There are lots of smart people working on these problems and they are making some progress, but the fundamental issues remain and until they are really nailed, EVs (IMO) will remain a challenging option for many consumers. For example, there are several very large exploration and mining projects in the US and Canada right now which are intended to provide a lower cost and more stable supply of the key battery materials. In addition, there is very active research underway to develop more stable battery chemistries and reduce the requirements for rare materials (the supplies of which are largely controlled by the Chinese - which should hardly give any of us any comfort).

In the meantime, large recalls (such as that for the Chevy Bolt and at least one other EV model) will continue to pop-up from time to time. Now, recalls are simply a fact of life in the auto industry, but these battery recalls are a bit different from most because they involve a component which is worth more than the rest of the car combined and that was not expected to ever need service at a retail dealership. I know, from personal experience, that changing an EV battery is a highly non-trivial task and few if any dealerships are equipped to do it.

The other thing is that as new batteries are developed, older EVs will become "orphans" which the newer batteries do not fit and thus, the older cars will become obsolete - basically, just small, pretty, four-wheel garden sheds.

To prove that point, here is a nice video from CBC News, featuring the attractive and articulate Heather Hiscox (sigh....), about a chap in British Columbia who has a 2013 Nissan Leaf which he likes very much. The problem is that the original Leaf battery has lost capacity (see the above list of operating characteristic issues) to the point where the car is not really very useful any longer. So - this guy wants to buy a new battery, and Nissan has quoted him about $15,000 for it, which he is willing to pay because the rest of the now 9-model year old car is still fine - but - Nissan cannot actually get a new battery for him because those 2013 model batteries are no longer made.

This situation is like the new car that you just bought can only use a special fuel that will only be made for a few years and after that - you're on your own baby!

One final point: ask yourself how much a small econbox car is worth when it is 9 years old....say, $2-4,000 - tops - depending on the specific model and its condition?

Now, consider that the average age of a car in North America is about 11+ years - and so the guy in BC has a relatively "young" car which is becoming virtually useless and thus has very little value, despite being totally undamaged and fully serviceable - except for one component which is unobtainable at any price - even one which is far more than the whole vehicle is worth.

I'm stickin' with my slightly rusty and ratty 2012 Ford Escape.....

Pete

Nice summation Pete. I guess we will just have to hang our hopes on the most abundant element in the universe….hydrogen. :laughing: We really are doomed. :confused:
 
Nice summation Pete. I guess we will just have to hang our hopes on the most abundant element in the universe….hydrogen. :laughing: We really are doomed. :confused:

Indeed Bob. I did a big consulting report on the future role of hydrogen for Toyota about 3-4 years ago. When they called me, I told them: "Look, I am not in favour of hydrogen.....perhaps you want someone else." They told me that was precisely the reason why they wanted me to do it.

Anyhow, after much research and a lot of careful thought, I actually became a hydrogen fan.
NOTE: there is no free lunch - hydrogen certainly has its problems too, but:
- hydrogen can be used for any purpose that presently employs a hydrocarbon-based fuel such as gasoline, diesel, coal, natural gas...etc.
- hydrogen used in a fuel cell produces electricity which can propel a vehicle, a ship, power a house or a business;
- hydrogen use produces only water vapour (i.e. rain clouds) and no other direct carbon emissions. Indirect emissions depends on how the hydrogen was made in the first place.

That last point brings forward the big problem which is producing hydrogen in a "clean and green" fashion.

At present, most hydrogen is "grey" and uses natural gas as a feedstock. Making "green" hydrogen would require a huge increase in wind and solar energy as well as full deployment of all available hydro-electric resources (i.e. waterfalls) - and this would cost BIG money. I would note that Japan is making big moves in this direction as we speak.

Anyhow, the fact remains that batteries are a dumb way to store energy for a car.

P
 
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Indeed Bob. I did a big consulting report on the future role of hydrogen for Toyota about 3-4 years ago. When they called me, I told them: "Look, I am not in favour of hydrogen.....perhaps you want someone else." They told me that was precisely the reason why they wanted me to do it.

Anyhow, after much research and a lot of careful thought, I actually became a hydrogen fan.
NOTE: there is no free lunch - hydrogen certainly has its problems too, but:
- hydrogen can be used for any purpose that presently employs a hydrocarbon-based fuel such as gasoline, diesel, coal, natural gas...etc.
- hydrogen used in a fuel cell produces electricity which can propel a vehicle, a ship, power a house or a business;
- hydrogen use produces only water vapour (i.e. rain clouds) and no other direct carbon emissions. Indirect emissions depends on how the hydrogen was made in the first place.

That last point brings forward the big problem which is producing hydrogen in a "clean and green" fashion.

At present, most hydrogen is "grey" and uses natural gas as a feedstock. Making "green" hydrogen would require a huge increase in wind and solar energy as well as full deployment of all available hydro-electric resources (i.e. waterfalls) - and this would cost BIG money. I would note that Japan is making big moves in this direction as we speak.

Anyhow, the fact remains that batteries are a dumb way to store energy for a car.

P
Pete
I remember reading 35+ years ago about using hydrogen to power IC engines. They were going to use parabolic dishes to generate the heat needed to crack water to get the hydrogen. Whatever happened to that or am I remembering wrong. Burning hydrogen in a IC engine only produces power and water vapors.
 
Indeed Bob. I did a big consulting report on the future role of hydrogen for Toyota about 3-4 years ago. When they called me, I told them: "Look, I am not in favour of hydrogen.....perhaps you want someone else." They told me that was precisely the reason why they wanted me to do it.
Anyhow, after much research and a lot of careful thought, I actually became a hydrogen fan.
NOTE: there is no free lunch - hydrogen certainly has its problems too, but:
- hydrogen can be used for any purpose that presently employs a hydrocarbon-based fuel such as gasoline, diesel, coal, natural gas...etc.
- hydrogen used in a fuel cell produces electricity which can propel a vehicle, a ship, power a house or a business;
- hydrogen use produces only water vapour (i.e. rain clouds) and no other direct carbon emissions. Indirect emissions depends on how the hydrogen was made in the first place.
That last point brings forward the big problem which is producing hydrogen in a "clean and green" fashion.
At present, most hydrogen is "grey" and uses natural gas as a feedstock. Making "green" hydrogen would require a huge increase in wind and solar energy as well as full deployment of all available hydro-electric resources (i.e. waterfalls) - and this would cost BIG money. I would note that Japan is making big moves in this direction as we speak.
Anyhow, the fact remains that batteries are a dumb way to store energy for a car.
P

Hi Pete,
you'll never get the "atoms are killing my baby" crowd to agree but the best clean energy solution is Nuclear + Hydrogen.
Build CANDU reactors to power the existing electrical grid and to electrify the railroads.
Nuclear reactors don't load follow worth a damn so use the extra power to crack water into Oxygen & Hydrogen.
Whiffle the Oxygen into the atmosphere to keep the greenies happy. Liquify the Hydrogen and cryotank it for vehicular use.
All you'll get out of exhaust pipes is wet steam.
 
Pete
I remember reading 35+ years ago about using hydrogen to power IC engines. They were going to use parabolic dishes to generate the heat needed to crack water to get the hydrogen. Whatever happened to that or am I remembering wrong. Burning hydrogen in a IC engine only produces power and water vapors.

That is correct GLJ - energy and water vapour.

In the late 1990s-early 2000s, BMW built a whole bunch of their big 7-Series cars that had hydrogen (aka H2) tanks in the trunks and put the gas throughout the normal V12 internal combustion engines (with a modified injector and ECU setup) and they worked fine - as long as you could find hydrogen. The real issue was that the tanks took up almost the entire trunk of each car (these cars had big trunks) and hydrogen was not widely available.

The fuel cell is a much more more practical way to deploy hydrogen. The electricity from the cell is then used in an electric motor and wah-lah - yer goin’ down the road.

The advantages of this form of EV are that it can be fuelled in about the same time as a conventional IC engine car (say 8-10 minutes instead of hours required to charge batteries) and the vehicle will weigh about the same as an IC engine car so no need for special tires etc. Also, if there is a leak, the hydrogen will simply blow away and be absorbed into the atmosphere joint with oxygen atoms to form water. There won’t be any pollution. The risk of a massive explosion and fire (or “thermal event” as GM likes to call them) is remote because any given car simply won’t have that much hydrogen onboard (one or two kilograms at most, I think).
The Hindenburg....fuggetaboudit - not gonna happen.

The disadvantages, aside from system cost, are that H2 is still not widely available to consumers, vehicle throttle response will not be all that quick (FCEVs usually have a small on-board battery to look after rapid throttle response) and hydrogen tanks for a decent driving range are still rather bulky.

Anyhow, these things are all possible, but for now....my trusty rusty Escape will do me fine.

Pete
 
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Yup, making it isn’t the hard part. Making it at a price that works - that is the hard part.
P
Pete, when we had our meet up at Vinsetta garage I had been doing an addition to the HFC lab at GM powertrain. The biggest hurdle to developing the fuel cell according to the guys there was going to be the infrastructure to service the Hydrogen. They had all kinds of neat stuff there……..:popcorn:
 
Ran a loop of 3/4" RapidAir Maxline today. A kit with all the fittings (less the chuck) for three drops and 100' of tubing was $200-ish.

VERY nice stuff, the air blocks are nicely machined out of billet aluminum, all the fittings are either stainless or brass, and includes drain valves at each drop.

I was a little worried about bending the tubing without kinking it, but it turns out the 3/4" conduit bender I bought for the electrical work is perfect for that.

If I was going to run a LOT of that tubing, I'd make or buy the straightener for it (it comes coiled up) but I managed with a 3 foot piece of appropriately-sized PVC and the trusty Beer Belly Clamp.

Still waiting on the electrons, hoping for this week coming. Pretty much everything else is done, less the furnace. Keeping an eye on Craigslist for that and if it doesn't happen by cold weather, I'm pretty sure my propane salamander will git 'er done as well insulated as the building is.
 
Pretty much everything else is done, less the furnace. Keeping an eye on Craigslist for that and if it doesn't happen by cold weather, I'm pretty sure my propane salamander will git 'er done as well insulated as the building is.

Only problem I can see with the propane slamander in a nice tight space is the moisture it will create. Tried using something like that in my garage before I sprung for a hanging propane furnace and it seemed to make everything wet when it was running.
 
Only problem I can see with the propane slamander in a nice tight space is the moisture it will create. Tried using something like that in my garage before I sprung for a hanging propane furnace and it seemed to make everything wet when it was running.

Yup, that's an issue. I'll probably have to run a dehumidifier too if I'm in there much. REALLY hope to find and install a hot air furnace before it gets too cold.
 
Yup, that's an issue. I'll probably have to run a dehumidifier too if I'm in there much. REALLY hope to find and install a hot air furnace before it gets too cold.
Yep. My insulated 'shop is nicely warmed by a simple 2kW convection heater that comes on with a timer at 8am and by the time I venture in there, everything is nicely warmed up. It's not a huge space, about the size of a double and a half garage but good insulation, which makes all the difference in the world. Before I enclosed the space it would be dripping with moisture most autumnal / winter days, so I knew that had to be tackled. The simple enclosure and controlling moist air ingress and heating what was in there means I don't worry about rusty tools or equipment any more.
 
Yep. My insulated 'shop is nicely warmed by a simple 2kW convection heater that comes on with a timer at 8am and by the time I venture in there, everything is nicely warmed up. It's not a huge space, about the size of a double and a half garage but good insulation, which makes all the difference in the world. Before I enclosed the space it would be dripping with moisture most autumnal / winter days, so I knew that had to be tackled. The simple enclosure and controlling moist air ingress and heating what was in there means I don't worry about rusty tools or equipment any more.
I do not have the moisture problem as bad but I mist some of my toolds with WD40 once a year.
 
Before I had my Nat Gas vented heater I ran non vented propane heater and it did get moist in the shop
And when I was young and dumb(er?) we used to run one of those up right kerosene wick heaters (they were all the rage back then)to keep the living room warm, and just because we didn't want all that toxic warm air to leave the living we hung a blanket in the doorway :oops:
The things single guys would do to save a buck back then
 
I have never been able to tolerate a kero/diesel salamander, even in an "open" garage or shed.

For years, I had the idea that propane didn't create CO, based on the fact that they run propane forklifts indoors all the time.

Apparently I was wrong, which explains the slight headache I'd occasionally get from running my propane salamander in the woodworking shop. An hour or two was fine, but all morning was too much.

Plan B was to run the salamander until I got the space up to 60-ish and then fire up the tank-top infrared Mr. Heater. That never seemed to bother. Less volume of gas being burned I expect.
 
Wood stove

Nope.

1. Flammable Storage.
2. Plan to keep it above freezing 24/7/365
3. Requires planning ahead plus feeding the stove all the time.
4. Expensive chimney required.
5. Setback from flammables takes up a lot of room.

Got a line on a oil/hot air unit this morning, waiting to find out when I can go look at it.
 
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