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Corona Virus COVID-19

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by gggGary, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. gggGary

    gggGary Stop that! XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Forum Rules still apply!
    Leave fault, blame out of it.
    What do you think?
    Do you have any plans to deal with it?
    How will life change?
     
    Jim, MaxPete and Greyandridin like this.
  2. 59Tebo

    59Tebo 59Tebo Top Contributor

    People known to have it have been quarantined. Good. As it should be. One case "of unknown origin". Bad. It's gotten loose. It's coming, and I don't think the powers that be are going to have any way of stopping it. We are as prepared for this as we are for Ebola. We're not. It's going to make the Influenza outbreak of 1909(?) look like the common cold. After everything else I've been through (El Cancer, valve job and bypass, various other procedures), I hope we don't die from this...
     
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  3. Wordman

    Wordman XS650 Enthusiast

    So long as we keep the numbers of infected people low, we'll be fine. The problem with COVID-19 is the long, asymptomatic period wherein it is highly contagious (incubation period). Another virus with such was Polio, where only 1% of people infected with the virus ever showed symptoms (Poliomyelitis). This meant that Polio could be spread far and wide before anyone knew it had passed through.

    COVID-19 is currently demonstrating a mortality rate of around 3.5%. But that number includes those in China where the health industry has been overwhelmed by the disease. I think (but I am no medical professional) so long as we can keep the numbers small enough that our hospitals can handle the load, we'll keep the mortality rate around 1% or fewer. If it gets away, however, we--no country for that matter--is prepared. Even if it were possible to have the hospital space to contend with a large-scale outbreak, the disruption to services of even 10% of the population coming down with the virus (and that's forgetting the 3+% mortality rate) will be devastating.
     
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  4. gggGary

    gggGary Stop that! XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Wordman; great points!
    A fast "clamp down" to slow the spread, give infrastructure a chance to prepare and deal with it.
     
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  5. Wordman

    Wordman XS650 Enthusiast

    The infrastructure will never--can never--be there. It's just not possible to have millions of extra hospital beds sitting unused.

    This will be a do or die sort of thing. We either keep it contained, or we end up with tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands or more, cases, and thus a proportional number of dead.
     
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  6. gggGary

    gggGary Stop that! XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Headed off to look at polio for a case study.
     
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  7. gggGary

    gggGary Stop that! XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Vaccine is the answer.
    Is it possible (is there the will) to slow the spread before it's available, prolly the question?
    If the country doesn't act, will you act personally to reduce the chance of getting infected?
     
    Paul Sutton, Jim, MaxPete and 2 others like this.
  8. 59Tebo

    59Tebo 59Tebo Top Contributor

    Those who recover from the Covid virus should voluntarily give as much blood, as often as possible, so a vaccine can be created. The spread is inevitable, and yes, our hospital infrastructure, and frequency of new cases will determine mortality rates. Big cities will be most at risk for large-scale outbreaks, but small towns are not invulnerable. Even people living in isolation are susceptible, with Covid being an air-born virus (although chances are slim...). We've already seen the economic impact, after only four days of a market slide, so what can we expect if this turns into the pandemic the CDC is worried about? People must remain resolute, and vigilante. Stay calm and orderly (a big task for those who think the sky is falling), and be prepared for interruptions in virtually everything.
     
  9. lakeview

    lakeview XS650 Guru XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    I am hoping it will be no worse than a bad cold and accordingly feel that the preparation is overkill. However, taking care with personal interactions and lots of hand washing is a good practice.
     
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  10. gggGary

    gggGary Stop that! XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Yes for most its not a big deal but that 2% mortality rate makes it an order of magnitude more dangerous than flu.
     
  11. Wordman

    Wordman XS650 Enthusiast

    The trouble is, so far as I understand it, you can get it more than once. Dengue Fever is like that. With Dengue, the first time you get it it's not so deadly, but if you get it a second time, it's hemorrhagic, and the mortality rate is significantly higher.

    I don't know if COVID-19 is worse the second time around, though.
     
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  12. Wordman

    Wordman XS650 Enthusiast

    I'm going to say it's a big deal for anyone who gets it. A large number end up on a respirator, and that's a problem. The system can easily become overwhelmed, and then the mortality rate (currently at 3.4% worldwide) rises sharply. Right now, China is exhibiting a 3.5% mortality rate, but I suspect China is withholding their death numbers and that their mortality rate is much higher at this point.
     
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  13. Mailman

    Mailman Hardly a Guru Top Contributor

    I have read up on this until my eyes are bleeding. You’re right, this is similar to the flu, but so much worse. It is primarily a respiratory disease, but super destructive to the lungs. Those with a weakened respiratory system ( like me with chronic asthma ) are particularly affected. It’s a double whammy, the virus replicates super fast in the lungs thus destroying cells, that in turn triggers a massive immune response from your body to attack the virus, but the immune response is indiscriminate and it also destroys healthy tissue. In the percent of the population that suffers a severe reaction this can trigger a failure of the respiratory system and require you to go on a ventilator. And unlike the run of the mill flu, this virus can also trigger organ failure, patients have died from kidney, liver and heart failure. Even if you survive and eventually recover , it can leave you with permanent lung damage, even holes in your lungs. That’s not chicken little talking , that just the way this thing has been going.

    As far as what can you do personally, I really don’t know. it’s so damn contagious. How does anyone avoid catching a cold or the flu? You cant hide in your home, I refuse to. Just take the usual precautions I guess. I gotta say this one has me a little freaked out. It’s already on the loose in Los Angeles , and Phoenix is practically next door, the population of California and Arizona is practically interchangeable, Arizonans vacation on the California coast, and a lot of families here also have family members there. Phoenix is also a huge metropolis. For the first time ever, I find myself wishing that our furnace like summer will come early and cook this damn virus.
     
  14. Jim

    Jim Beyond the edge, is the unknown. Here be Dragons XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Better to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. We're stocking up on food and water. This country runs on big trucks full of groceries. Trucks need truck stops. Cashiers, waitresses.... lot's of 24hr traffic. That strikes me as the perfect distribution point for COVID-19 to go coast to coast.
    The woman in Ca. means the horse is already out of the barn. I'm not sure containment is possible at this point.
    Edited ggg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 28, 2020
  15. xjwmx

    xjwmx It's just the unknown. Top Contributor

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    mailman, did you read anything about asian males being the most susceptible to it, biologically?

    Edited ggg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 28, 2020
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  16. gggGary

    gggGary Stop that! XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Stop the political angle all O you. I bounced khansons post up above and he was not over the top. I agree its wrapped up tightly together. Stick to disease, and prevention. Point out success failure leave out any finger pointing. Appreciate hearing from people I know and respect. This has me very concerned we are caring for 3 of Allison's folks. I'm thinking they are at extreme risk.
     
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  17. xjwmx

    xjwmx It's just the unknown. Top Contributor

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  18. 2XSive

    2XSive At least one screw loose behind the handle bars XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

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    Agree with Jim...prepare for the worse and hope for the best. Though I am more of a realist and don't consider myself an alarmist (though my wife might say my thinking borders on being paranoid), here is my logic on a worse case scenario. If we see the spread of this disease as the CDC has stated is a matter of "when" and not "if": businesses, schools, and entire communities, and large public gatherings (stadium games, etc.) will be closed until the rate of new infections subsides. Who knows how long that'll take. This could dramatically impact food and energy distribution channels and could create real public panic. Grocery stores may be challenged to stock adequate food supplies and gas stations may be challenged to get adequate fuel supplies delivered. Airline industry will crumble. Businesses may go bankrupt and stock market will continue to plummet, putting incredible stress on retiree incomes. People will be laid off in droves putting a lot of stress on government funded unemployment. If it all gets really ugly and panic sets in bad, anarchy could result in major metro areas first and then in rural areas due to food/energy shortages. No doubt media sensationalizes it all, making it worse. Again, I'm not an alarmist, just thinking through a worse-case scenario. Best to stock up on a several weeks/months of food supplies and water just to be on the safe side and be prepared for personal family protection. I look at this as common sense preparedness. It can't hurt to prepare, as you can always cycle through the food or donate it to food pantries if it's not needed and the expiration dates hit. This video, though a bit long is very interesting...but again...who knows how much of it is sensationalism:
     
  19. Jim

    Jim Beyond the edge, is the unknown. Here be Dragons XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

    Sorry Gary. :(
     
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  20. 2XSive

    2XSive At least one screw loose behind the handle bars XS650.com Supporter Top Contributor

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    Delete my post if it is viewed as over the top. My apologies, Gary.
     
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