Rugger, Incorrect wheel size does not explain the erratic reading but it wouldn't hurt to check.
It is easily done without maths: Put a chalk mark on the tyre where it sits on the ground and continue the mark down to the driveway. Push the bike in a straight line forward until the line on the tyre is in the same position back on the ground (1 revolution). Transfer the mark onto the driveway. Measure the distance between the two driveway marks, that is the circumference.
I think the problem is an occasional double trigger and miss from the sensor.