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Sci Fi
- Thread starter Jim
- Start date
I wanted to share a sudden shift in technology in my profession that I think is relevant to the AI discussion. It is a fine example of how an entire field of science can be flipped on its head in only a matter of years. This content is part of a talk I give to non-scientists, rotary clubs, motorcycle forums, etc... Hopefully you all might find it interesting.
The story begins with The Human Genome Project (1990-2003). This was a 13-year, 2.7 billion dollar international effort to sequence the 3 billion bases (i.e. letters) of the human genome.
These are traditional DNA sequencers. They worked non-stop in rooms like this all across the world to sequence the first human genome. Then, a sudden shift in technology radically altered how DNA is analyzed. Enter Next-Generation DNA Sequencing (NGS).
Moore’s Law was developed in the early days of Intel by Gordon Moore. He noted that the number of transistors on a processor was doubling every year while the price was halved. This law has generally held true for the semiconductor industry, as well as many others, including the cost of genetic analysis. Well, it was holding true, until the development of NGS in 2008…
Within the span of only a few years the ability to sequence a human genome moved from an international effort to a single benchtop. This instrument can sequence 12 human genomes in a single run. It doesn’t just sequence them once, either, it sequences each one ~100 times to ensure accuracy. That is 3.6x10^12 data points in an afternoon. Think about that… a traditional instrument may be able to get something like 2x10^5 data points. That is a difference of seven orders of magnitude…!
All of the magic happens on a silicon chip about the size of a single microscope slide. It is an amazing fusion of silicon-based electronics and biology. It should also be pointed out that there are MANY types of NGS, all appearing within a few years of each other. Pyrosequencing, reversible terminator, H+ ion, all of the sudden it was easy to conduct biological functions on semiconductors. A good example of multiple discovery.
If anyone is curious how exactly this works, this video provides a great explanation of H+ ion sequencing.
My point here is that you never know when a sea change in technology is going to occur. In a single stroke an entire field of science (and medicine) is forever changed. I think the example of NGS is especially relevant to AI, as it is literally the coupling of semiconductors and many of the same molecular processes that govern our own biology. After seeing this I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume that one day a computer and software could be created that is so radically different from anything that we know of now that it could support a genuine intelligence.
Rhy, your post is an example of what I feel is a major boon to the advance of science and techology: The Internet and sharing information.
Think about it: Here we are on a forum primarily dedicated to motorcycles...and one particular antique motorcycle at that...that one would expect to be populated blue collar grease monkeys like me.
Yet a random subject about entertainment pops up, various ideas, points, thoughts and opinions are aired and it morphs into a highly technical discussion of scientific progress. Amazing.
I'm a member of another forum to do with guns. At first glance, one of the more red-necked topics in many peoples opinions. But, it has 80,000+ members from a dozen or more countries and seems to cover nearly the entire spectrum of human experience. I've been a member for 10 years and seen it happen time and again. Any subject, no matter how esoteric, will eventually generate input from an authoritative, experienced source. The scope of questions - technical, medical, legal, inter-personal and the occasional gun-related query - that get answered there is just staggering.
What a wonderful time to be alive. I'm old enough to remember being mesmerized by the content of the school's Encyclopedia Britannica.
Think about it: Here we are on a forum primarily dedicated to motorcycles...and one particular antique motorcycle at that...that one would expect to be populated blue collar grease monkeys like me.
Yet a random subject about entertainment pops up, various ideas, points, thoughts and opinions are aired and it morphs into a highly technical discussion of scientific progress. Amazing.
I'm a member of another forum to do with guns. At first glance, one of the more red-necked topics in many peoples opinions. But, it has 80,000+ members from a dozen or more countries and seems to cover nearly the entire spectrum of human experience. I've been a member for 10 years and seen it happen time and again. Any subject, no matter how esoteric, will eventually generate input from an authoritative, experienced source. The scope of questions - technical, medical, legal, inter-personal and the occasional gun-related query - that get answered there is just staggering.
What a wonderful time to be alive. I'm old enough to remember being mesmerized by the content of the school's Encyclopedia Britannica.
In the school library I used to bounce 'tween the Britannica's and the sci fi section... history too now that I think of it. Shortly after boot camp I went home to visit the folks and Dad had bought a pocket calculator. It was expensive for the day at over a hundred bucks (iirc), only had 4 functions.... and he had absolutely no need for it. It was the coolest gadget I'd ever seen.
I didn't discover Science Fiction (other than the Tom Swift series...) until I was 20 or so.
Probably just as well, I'd have been reading Heinlein behind my Chemistry book and done even worse in High School than I did as it was.
Probably just as well, I'd have been reading Heinlein behind my Chemistry book and done even worse in High School than I did as it was.
I believe that's right. Man was resigned to the horse and buggy, and sails for travel. The steam engine changed that. The Wright brothers changed that yet again. Today any corner of the globe is within reach in a single day. And that's just transportation. There's leap in technology in just about any field you care to name. It may not be in my lifetime, but I've no doubt that one day we'll ponder the dilemma of "what is Data."
I'm pretty sure it's inevitable. But what you are saying there contains the essence of a problem, and that is one of definitions. "Genuine human intelligence". To a man of the early 20th century what we have today would be plenty human enough to convince him already, and you'd have to explain to him how and why it isn't human.
Typically a use gets discovered for a technology whose value was unrecognized, not something that was entirely developed for the purpose. Is that what happened?
When I first hired into the Post Office in 1985, my job was to operate a new generation of high speed letter sorting machines.
These machines could read the addresses and sort letters at a rate of 35,000 pieces per hour. The Phoenix office back then had dozens of these machines running around the clock. The postal service maintains a data base of all known addresses in the United States and this list is updated weekly as new homes and businesses are constantly being added.
Back in 1985 , in the Phoenix plant all of that data was maintained in a large air conditioned room that was elevated above the factory floor, inside that room were banks of reel to reel tape computer cabinets.
Every week technicians would come in with a stack of new tapes and change out all the machines. These computers were linked to all the mail sorting machines and all that data was shared in a fraction of a second as a letter flew by a reader and was scanned. And as I said there were dozens of machines operating simultaneously.
Within a few years all of those cabinets were replaced with this. A single CD.
A whole roomful of equipment was removed and became management office space. Replaced by a single computer running a single disc. Absolutely amazing.
Here is a short video of how fast those machines were,
These machines could read the addresses and sort letters at a rate of 35,000 pieces per hour. The Phoenix office back then had dozens of these machines running around the clock. The postal service maintains a data base of all known addresses in the United States and this list is updated weekly as new homes and businesses are constantly being added.
Back in 1985 , in the Phoenix plant all of that data was maintained in a large air conditioned room that was elevated above the factory floor, inside that room were banks of reel to reel tape computer cabinets.
Every week technicians would come in with a stack of new tapes and change out all the machines. These computers were linked to all the mail sorting machines and all that data was shared in a fraction of a second as a letter flew by a reader and was scanned. And as I said there were dozens of machines operating simultaneously.
Within a few years all of those cabinets were replaced with this. A single CD.
A whole roomful of equipment was removed and became management office space. Replaced by a single computer running a single disc. Absolutely amazing.
Here is a short video of how fast those machines were,
Very true, and this is a hell of a thing to try and define. We have chatbots today that arguably pass the Turing test. Here is an example of one of the most acclaimed bots if anyone is curious: https://www.pandorabots.com/kuki/
The word "autonomous" comes to my mind when trying to define a real AI. IBM puts is better using their term "strong AI"
What is strong AI?
Strong artificial intelligence (AI), also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI) or general AI, is a theoretical form of AI used to describe a certain mindset of AI development. If researchers are able to develop Strong AI, the machine would require an intelligence equal to humans; it would have a self-aware consciousness that has the ability to solve problems, learn, and plan for the future.
Strong AI aims to create intelligent machines that are indistinguishable from the human mind. But just like a child, the AI machine would have to learn through input and experiences, constantly progressing and advancing its abilities over time.
Thirty years ago a very bright professor of education I was working with mentioned to me he'd once written a program that learned, but its problem was it ran out of memory very quickly. I don't know what it did, but he seemed to understand the process of learning inside and out and it would probably still be interesting today
I find it interesting that the early Sci-fi writers wrote of planets with silicon-based life forms. Invasions by silicon-based alien monsters! Computers run on silicon chips, so if they became a self-aware, new life form, would they be the silicon-based monsters those writers predicted, long ago? Like I said, sometimes technology just takes a little time to catch up....
Was watching a TV series on AI and there is a guy who is teaching an AI. He is using his own childs face. It is driven by virtual mussels driven by a virtual brain. Instead of neurons to drive the brain it uses nodes. The AI is shown a spider and told it is a spider and you can see the virtual brain processing and responding by screens attached to the virtual brain so you can see what the AI/the baby is learning
Playing peekaboo and the AI is responding. The guy says, (same as you), that to have a true/strong AI it has to learn as a baby does
Another classic movie to watch, on the subject of AI: "Colossus: The Forbin Project". (1970) U.S. and Soviet computers are built to better manage each country's defense. They become self-aware and take over (for our "benefit").
The LASER was the prime example that occurs to me. It sat for years waiting for a real use.
Hmm... let's hope that nano-bots converting silicon into real machines don't go wild on the beaches.
"Beaches are closed off in Malibu today, because of an infestation of rogue AIers. Local and Federal response teams hope to hose them down later."
I see no one is talking Star Wars here. I went back to see if there was a memo to ignore it, but found nothing. 
Season two of The Mandalorian just finished and I honestly am hooked on it. I was disappointed in the sequel trilogy of Star Wars movies mainly because I thought Disney ruined Luke and Hans. I started viewing fan pages of Star Wars on YouTube and find that it wasn't so much Disney, but the head of Lucas Films Kathleen Kennedy who did it. Evidently she hates the old Star Wars and wanted it dead so she could usher in her own version of inclusion. She feels that there needs to be more diversity in the cast. All of the main actors from that trilogy have quit now because of her personality.
The savior of Star Wars seems to be Jon Favreau and David Filoni. Evidently George Lucas and these guys banned together to save the story with the Mandalorian and it works.
Disney has a dozen new Star Wars projects coming out soon: Kenobi, (Asoka, The Book of Bobo, Rangers of the New Republic: these all occur during the Mandalorian time frame), Bad Batch, Andor, Lando and two new trilogies.
I am pretty excited myself...
Season two of The Mandalorian just finished and I honestly am hooked on it. I was disappointed in the sequel trilogy of Star Wars movies mainly because I thought Disney ruined Luke and Hans. I started viewing fan pages of Star Wars on YouTube and find that it wasn't so much Disney, but the head of Lucas Films Kathleen Kennedy who did it. Evidently she hates the old Star Wars and wanted it dead so she could usher in her own version of inclusion. She feels that there needs to be more diversity in the cast. All of the main actors from that trilogy have quit now because of her personality.
The savior of Star Wars seems to be Jon Favreau and David Filoni. Evidently George Lucas and these guys banned together to save the story with the Mandalorian and it works.
Disney has a dozen new Star Wars projects coming out soon: Kenobi, (Asoka, The Book of Bobo, Rangers of the New Republic: these all occur during the Mandalorian time frame), Bad Batch, Andor, Lando and two new trilogies.
I am pretty excited myself...
A Chinese AI company that's blacklisted for being part of “China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, and high-technology surveillance.” It has major American investment.
Hmmm pretty harmless looking...
https://twitter.com/SenseTime_AI
Funny, eh?
https://twitter.com/SenseTime_AI/status/1341950237959544833
Hmmm pretty harmless looking...
https://twitter.com/SenseTime_AI
Funny, eh?
https://twitter.com/SenseTime_AI/status/1341950237959544833
They were blacklisted just ahead of trumps trade talks with China. In other word, for political reasons. Go drop your political turds somewhere else.
Are you an excitement junkie with no other outlets anymore? You must create some shit to feel excited?